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Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting
Equipping analysts, practitioners, and graduate students with a statistical framework to make effective decisions based on the application of simple economic and statistical methods, Economic and Business Forecasting offers a comprehensive and practical approach to quantifying and accurate forecasting of key variables. Using simple econometric techniques, author John E. Silvia focuses on a select set of major economic and financial variables, revealing how to optimally use statistical software as a template to apply to your own variables of interest.
- Presents the economic and financial variables that offer unique insights into economic performance
- Highlights the econometric techniques that can be used to characterize variables
- Explores the application of SAS software, complete with simple explanations of SAS-code and output
- Identifies key econometric issues with practical solutions to those problems
Presenting the "ten commandments" for economic and business forecasting, this book provides you with a practical forecasting framework you can use for important everyday business applications.
- Sales Rank: #1194067 in Books
- Published on: 2014-03-31
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 10.30" h x 1.40" w x 7.50" l, .0 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 382 pages
From the Inside Flap
ECONOMIC AND BUSINESS FORECASTING
ANALYZING AND INTERPRETING ECONOMETRIC RESULTS
Due to the Great Recession and the accompanying financial crisis, the premium on effective economic analysis, especially the two aspects of that analysis and accurate forecasting of economic and financial variables, has significantly increased. Economic and Business Forecasting introduces statistical techniques that can help characterize the behavior of economic relationships, testing whether certain series such as output, employment, profits, and interest rates exhibit a steady pace of growth over time, or if that pace has drifted.
Focused on a select set of major economic and financial variables—such as economic growth, final sales, employment, inflation, interest rates, corporate profits, financial ratios and the exchange value of the dollar—Economic and Business Forecasting employs econometric techniques and the statistical software SASTM serves as a template for readers to apply to variables of interest. These variables form the core of an effective decision-making process in both the private and public sectors.
Providing a practical forecasting framework for important everyday applications, this book considers questions including:
- How can we identify economic series that appear to be behaving in typical cyclical fashion compared to those that are not?
- Why have exceptionally low mortgage interest rates not spurred a pickup in housing as in prior recoveries?
- If a time series displays a cyclical component, how does it behave as we move through the business cycle?
- Do turning points in the time series lead or lag those of other series?
Discover the secrets to applying simple econometric techniques to improve forecasting with the proven guidance found in Economic and Business Forecasting.
From the Back Cover
Praise for Economic and Business Forecasting
“Economic and Business Forecasting is an authoritative book on how to characterize, analyze and interpret movements in economic data. This very hands-on textbook is a welcome addition to the forecasting literature reflecting the latest developments and tools needed to do state-of-the-art analysis in a very dynamic world. The book will be useful not only to the undergraduate and graduate students of business and economics, but also be appreciated by people who spend their careers practicing in this area.”
—KAJAL LAHIRI, Distinguished Professor of Economics, SUNY-Albany
“John Silvia’s work is always clear, concise, and presented in an easy-to-understand format – that’s why I always learn from his writings. If you want to know how Wall Street economists interpret the tea leaves, buy this book! I guarantee it will be a much-referenced guide for anyone from the student of macroeconomics or econometrics to the seasoned Wall Street veteran.”
—RICHARD YAMARONE, Bloomberg Economics
“I highly recommend this new book on economic and business forecasting for advanced undergraduate and graduate students interested in using economic data for business purposes. The book is very clearly and carefully written with practitioners in mind, and it is very accessible without sacrificing substance. One particular strength of the text is the emphasis on doing economic forecasting using SAS, a very commonly used statistical program in industry.”
—JENNIFER TROYER, Chair and Professor, Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Charlotte
“John Silvia is one of the pre-eminent corporate forecasters. However, although he is a very thoughtful forecaster whose accuracy has been better than most, his major strengths are understanding the context in which he is forecasting, recognizing and acting upon the fact that the conditions underlying forecasts are changing constantly, and embedding his forecasting activity within the context of the firm’s risk management. He and the colleagues that he leads at Wells Fargo have been frequent contributors to Business Economics, the professional journal of the National Association for Business Economics, and their contributions are consistently thoughtful and practical, while operating at the cutting edge of application of modern quantitative tools.”
—ROBERT CROW, Editor, Business Economics, the Journal for the National Association of Business Economics
About the Author
JOHN E. SILVIA is a Managing Director and the Chief Economist for Wells Fargo Securities. In 2010, he was recognized for the Best Inflation Forecast, the Best Overall Forecast, and the Best Personal Consumption Expenditures Forecast by The Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
AZHAR IQBAL is an Econometrician and Vice President at Wells Fargo Securities where he provides quantitative analysis to the Economics group as well as modeling and forecasting of macro and financial variables. He has spoken at the American Economic Association, Econometric Society, and other international conferences.
SAM BULLARD is a Managing Director and Senior Economist at Wells Fargo Securities providing analysis and commentary on financial markets and macroeconomic developments.
SARAH WATT is an Economist with Wells Fargo Securities. She covers the U.S. macro economy, including labor market trends. She also works closely with senior members of her team to produce special reports and regional economic commentary on several U.S. states.
KAYLYN SWANKOSKI is an Economic Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities.
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Four Stars
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Excellent resource for learning economics with an applied focus.
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